Bitcoin analysts project cycle bottom in Q4 2026
As Bitcoin trades near $60,000, roughly 50% below its record high, three independent technical models align to indicate the market has not yet reached its cycle low.
Bitcoin is currently trading near $60,000 following a 5 per cent daily drop, placing the asset approximately 50 per cent below its record high. According to analysis from Yahoo Finance, three widely shared technical charts suggest the four-year market cycle remains intact and that a deeper bottom lies ahead. The consensus among these models places the cycle low in the fourth quarter of 2026, with price targets potentially falling into the $40,000s.
Analyst Jesse Olson’s chart scales all four cycles since 2012 against the 2024 halving, noting that every prior cycle bottomed near day 900 post-halving. The current cycle reached day 775 this week, leaving a window of approximately 125 days before the historical bottom period opens. An orange band on the chart projects the low within the $40,000s, while the current price action mirrors the post-top declines seen in 2012, 2016, and 2020.
A second chart utilising a spiral model plots price on a four-year loop, where the angle marks the position in the cycle and the distance from the centre indicates price levels. Tops cluster in one arc, bottoms in another, and halvings in a third. The markers for 2026 and 2027 fall inside the same arc that has framed every previous low, reinforcing the timeline despite narratives suggesting structural changes in the market.
The third chart identifies overhead resistance levels that Bitcoin must reclaim to signal a trend reversal. The 21-week simple moving average sits at $75,100, the short-term holder cost basis at $77,000, and the 200-day average at $78,900. Each level previously acted as support during the bull phase but now sits as resistance. With price below the short-term holder cost basis, recent buyers are underwater, and the newsletter behind the chart characterises the current movement as a slow, time-based capitulation rather than a violent flush.
Analyst Benjamin Cowen supports the timeline, noting that Bitcoin topped on day 1,162 of the cycle, consistent with previous peaks. Cowen places his base case for the low in October 2026, which aligns with the 125-day window identified by Olson’s day 900 count. While institutional interest from spot ETFs and corporate treasuries has introduced new capital scales, the burden of proof remains with bulls until Bitcoin reclaims overhead levels above $79,000.
