Baird cuts Graphic Packaging target to $13, citing early-stage turnaround

Baird analyst Ghansham Panjabi has lowered the price target for Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) to $13 from $15, while maintaining a Neutral rating on the shares. The adjustment, made on 7 May, follows the release of the company’s first-quarter 2026 financial results, which Baird indicated suggest the firm’s strategic turnaround remains in its early stages.

During the first-quarter earnings call, CEO Robbert Rietbroek stated that the company delivered results at the upper end of its expectations. He reported quarterly net sales of $2.2 billion and an adjusted EBITDA of $232 million, representing an adjusted EBITDA margin of 10.8%. The company also recorded adjusted earnings per share of $0.09, though adjusted cash flow was reported at negative $183 million.

Rietbroek confirmed the completion of a 90-day business review, which has led to a series of operational changes aimed at strengthening profitability. A key component of this strategy is the divestment of non-core assets in Croatia, an agreement the company expects to close in the second quarter.

The restructuring also involves a significant reduction in workforce, with the elimination of more than 500 roles as part of an effort to streamline the organisational structure. Additionally, the company is implementing a stricter spending process to tighten capital allocation and improve operational efficiency.

Graphic Packaging Holding Company is a consumer packaging provider that manufactures cartons, trays, carriers, and cups using renewable or recycled materials. While the firm’s shares are currently listed among stocks under $15, Baird’s updated model reflects caution regarding the timeline for a full recovery, noting that the current measures are foundational rather than indicative of immediate, sustained growth.