AST SpaceMobile shares slide after Blue Origin rocket explosion prompts Deutsche Bank downgrade
Deutsche Bank’s Bryan Kraft lowers price target to $106 as the company’s $3.5 billion cash position and upcoming BlueBird launches provide a buffer against the setback.
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) shares declined sharply on Friday following the catastrophic explosion of Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket during a hotfire ground test at Cape Canaveral. The incident, which caused significant damage to the launchpad, has triggered a reassessment of the satellite operator’s launch schedule and prompted a downgrade from Deutsche Bank.
Deutsche Bank analyst Bryan Kraft downgraded the stock to a “Hold” rating and reduced the price target to $106, down from previous estimates. Kraft cited the heavy damage to the Cape Canaveral infrastructure as a primary driver for the revised outlook, noting that repairs will take considerable time and directly impact AST SpaceMobile’s ability to deploy its constellation.
The analyst’s revised model suggests a substantial delay in the company’s deployment timeline, now projecting a slip of approximately six months. Kraft previously estimated that 26 AST SpaceMobile satellites would launch on New Glenn this year, but he now considers any launches within the next three months “very optimistic.” Furthermore, he described the four New Glenn launches modelled for 2026 as “possibly unrealistic” given the current state of the launch facility.
Despite the sell-off, the company’s financial position remains robust. AST SpaceMobile holds approximately $3.5 billion in cash, which is sufficient to cover the production and launch of over 100 satellites. This liquidity buffer provides a degree of insulation against the immediate operational disruption caused by the Blue Origin incident.
The near-term outlook for the stock is anchored by upcoming missions that do not rely on New Glenn. AST SpaceMobile is scheduled to launch BlueBird 8, 9, and 10 aboard a Falcon 9 rocket in mid-June. These launches are unaffected by the Cape Canaveral explosion and represent the next major catalyst for the company’s direct-to-device mobile broadband network.
Market sentiment surrounding the stock presents a mixed picture. While ASTS shares have surged approximately 80% from their year-to-date low prior to the recent decline, Wall Street consensus remains cautious. The broader analyst consensus holds a “Hold” rating with a mean price target of roughly $86, implying further downside potential from current levels.
However, derivatives markets indicate a bullish skew among options traders. The put-to-call ratio for contracts expiring in late August stands at 0.31x, suggesting investor confidence in an upward trajectory. This sentiment is reflected in an upper price set of $155, which would represent a potential upside of more than 30 per cent from recent trading levels.
