Analysts pivot to bullish stance on ASML as revenue guidance rises
ASML Holding N.V. has revised its full-year revenue forecast upward, citing resolved supply constraints and a “perfect storm” of demand in the memory sector, according to analysis from Yahoo Finance.
Investment analysts are highlighting a strengthening investment case for ASML Holding N.V., driven by robust first-quarter results and an upward revision to the company’s full-year 2026 revenue guidance. The shift in sentiment underscores the semiconductor equipment maker’s critical position within the global artificial intelligence buildout, even as the market remains sensitive to near-term margin fluctuations.
ASML reported a 13 per cent year-on-year increase in first-quarter revenue, with gross margins holding at 53 per cent. The company’s Installed Base Management segment, which includes software and services, grew by 24 per cent to reach €2.5 billion. Management attributed the improved outlook to stronger-than-expected demand and the resolution of supply constraints for immersion lithography systems.
Memory accounted for 51 per cent of ASML’s system sales during the quarter. Management described current conditions in the dynamic random-access memory market as a “perfect storm” for the company, noting that simultaneous capacity additions and the adoption of extreme ultraviolet lithography layers are driving significant equipment orders.
In response to this demand, ASML raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to between €36 billion and €40 billion, up from the previous range of €30 billion to €35 billion. Looking ahead to 2027, the company increased its extreme ultraviolet capacity target to at least 80 systems and confirmed higher average selling prices for future tools. Long-term projections suggest fiscal 2027 revenue could reach €42 billion to €48 billion.
Despite the positive guidance, the stock experienced a roughly five per cent decline following the release of second-quarter gross margin guidance, which was set at 51 per cent to 52 per cent. The share price closed at $1,612.76 on May 29, 2026. Nevertheless, institutional interest has intensified, with 133 hedge fund portfolios holding the stock at the end of the first quarter, an increase from 101 in the prior period.
The stock has appreciated by approximately 116 per cent since coverage in May 2025. Analysts note that ASML benefits from a monopoly position in advanced lithography, growing recurring software revenue, and expanding customer investment across both logic and memory markets. If current assumptions hold, the company’s long-term outlook may move materially higher than previous estimates.
