Analyst warns against chasing SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI IPO hype

Financial analyst Rob Isbitts has published an analysis warning investors against pursuing the anticipated initial public offerings of SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI. The commentary, originally published on Barchart.com, argues that the current market environment is characterised by an "era of emotional price discovery," where high-hype technology listings are susceptible to immediate post-listing value erosion. Isbitts cites recent debuts by Cerebras, Figma and Bullish as historical precedents demonstrating a predictable pattern of extreme day-one hype followed by significant price declines due to unsustainable valuations and financial realities.

The analysis details specific performance metrics for recent IPOs to illustrate this trend. Cerebras, the wafer-scale chipmaker, priced at $185 and opened at $350 before closing its first session at $311. It has since fallen more than 30 per cent to under $250, leaving the company with a trailing price-sales ratio of 186 times against $510 million in 2025 revenue. Isbitts notes that such a multiple leaves zero margin for error, highlighting the disconnect between initial market enthusiasm and underlying financial health.

Similarly, Figma experienced an immediate peak on its debut day before rolling over. The design and collaboration software giant faced scrutiny from public analysts regarding slowing net revenue retention and the severe capital required to defend its market position against generative AI competitors. The stock’s trajectory underscores the risks associated with high capital requirements and competitive pressures that emerge once a company is subject to public market discipline.

The crypto exchange Bullish listed on the New York Stock Exchange in August 2025 at $37, spiking to over $115 on day one due to institutional interest and high-profile backing. However, the stock has since dropped 70 per cent as it grappled with financial misses, a massive acquisition and broader market headwinds. Isbitts describes this recurring "pop and drop" cycle as a warning sign for upcoming listings, suggesting that day-one prices often reflect hype rather than fundamental value.

Looking ahead, Isbitts suggests that SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI face similar structural risks. SpaceX is reportedly targeting a near-$2 trillion valuation while absorbing cash burn from xAI infrastructure projects. Meanwhile, Anthropic and OpenAI are tracking multihundredbillion-dollar valuations amidst high compute costs and complex revenue structures involving circular customer deals. The analyst warns that these factors could lead to significant value erosion once the initial listing frenzy subsides.

Isbitts, creator of the ROAR Score, disclosed that he holds no positions in the securities mentioned and stated the content is for informational purposes only. His analysis draws on over 40 years of technical analysis experience to advise both retail and institutional buyers to exercise caution. The commentary serves as a reminder that while Wall Street may orchestrate a feeding frenzy for historic debuts, historical precedents suggest that financial realities often override market sentiment in the medium term.