AFC West 2026 Outlook: Broncos, Chargers Projected for 10 Wins Amidst Divisional Shifts

An analysis of the 2026 win totals for the AFC West, published by CBS Sports and grounded in odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, outlines a complex landscape for the division’s four franchises. The report predicts the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers will each secure exactly 10 victories, while the Kansas City Chiefs are expected to exceed their preseason win total. Conversely, the Las Vegas Raiders are forecast to struggle to reach a 6-10 record despite significant roster adjustments.

The Denver Broncos enter the season with considerable institutional momentum following a 14-3 campaign in 2025 that saw them claim the division title. Quarterback Bo Nix has established a historic trajectory, becoming the first player to win double-digit games and record 30 total touchdowns in his first two seasons. Nix ranks in the top three all-time for quarterback wins (24), total touchdowns (64), and passing touchdowns (54) over that span. To support this offensive core, the Broncos have appointed Davis Webb as the starting quarterback and elevated Jaylen Waddle to the role of wide receiver one, while head coach Sean Payton has stepped down as the offensive play-caller.

In contrast, the Kansas City Chiefs are navigating a period of institutional recalibration after a disappointing 6-11 season in 2025, their worst under head coach Andy Reid. The team missed the playoffs entirely, a stark departure from their previous streak of seven consecutive AFC Championship appearances. Statistical analysis indicates that Patrick Mahomes has averaged nearly 50 fewer passing yards per game over the last three seasons compared to his first five as a full-time starter. To address offensive deficiencies, the Chiefs have signed running back Kenneth Walker III, the reigning Super Bowl MVP, aiming to spark a resurgence that aligns with Reid’s historical tendency to exceed preseason win totals.

The Los Angeles Chargers face a different set of structural challenges, having registered an 11-win season in 2025 but suffering a franchise-record 60 sacks due to offensive line issues. Justin Herbert remains winless in three postseason appearances. The franchise has hired Mike McDaniel as its new offensive coordinator, bringing a new strategic mindset to the unit. However, the team’s outlook is tempered by a grueling schedule, particularly a seven-game stretch from Weeks 3 to 10 that includes facing the last four NFL MVPs and three of the previous year’s conference championship teams.

Meanwhile, the Las Vegas Raiders have pursued an aggressive strategy to find stability, acquiring centre Tyler Linderbaum, linebackers Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker, and quarterbacks Kirk Cousins and Fernando Mendoza. The team also bolstered its draft class with selections including Treydan Stukes, Trey Zuhn III, Jermod McCoy, and Mike Washington Jr. Despite these acquisitions, the analysis suggests the Raiders face a top-seven toughest schedule in the NFL and must prove their defense can compete with the loaded AFC West, leading to projections that they may struggle to reach a 6-10 win total.