Advanced modelling favours longshots over favourites for 2026 NASCAR All-Star Race
With the field reducing to 26 drivers for the final stage at Dover, data-driven insights highlight Joey Logano and Team Penske’s historical strength as key factors.
The 2026 NASCAR All-Star Race is scheduled for Sunday at 1 p.m. ET at Dover Motor Speedway, where the exhibition format will see a 36-driver field for the initial stages before whittling down to 26 drivers for the 200-lap final stage. Christopher Bell enters the event as the defending champion, while Kyle Larson has secured three victories in the race since 2019.
Denny Hamlin is currently the betting favourite at +380, with Kyle Larson close behind at +470. Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, and Bell round out the top five in the odds, which are sourced from FanDuel. However, an advanced prediction model developed by professional DFS player Mike McClure projects Hamlin to finish outside the top five, challenging the market consensus.
McClure, who has over $2 million in career winnings and a model that has correctly identified 29 winners since 2021, cites Hamlin’s recent struggles in the exhibition as a primary concern. Hamlin won the All-Star Race in 2015, but over the last seven years, he has recorded more finishes of 12th or worse than top-five finishes. Notably, Hamlin has not led a single lap in any of the last seven All-Star Races.
Conversely, the model identifies Joey Logano at +4000 as a strong contender. Logano is a two-time All-Star Race winner and has achieved five top-10 finishes in his last 10 starts at Dover, including a stage victory. His selection is further supported by his affiliation with Team Penske, whose drivers hold the best all-time average finish of 13.8 at Dover among active teams and have five All-Star Race victories in the organisation’s history.
The model also highlights two other longshots with odds of at least +4000, including one massive longshot at +6000 or higher, as potential winners. While Cup Series leader Tyler Reddick is priced at +1000, he has zero top-five finishes in seven starts at Dover. The full list of odds includes Shane Van Gisbergen at +10,000, reflecting the wide variance in the field’s projected performance.
