SportsLine model projects upset as Smalley’s PGA lead faces scrutiny
Mike McClure’s proprietary algorithm identifies a longshot at 40-1 odds as a title contender, casting doubt on the stability of Alex Smalley’s two-shot advantage at Aronimink.
The 2026 PGA Championship enters its final stage at Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania, with a computer model suggesting that the current leaderboard may not reflect the ultimate outcome. Mike McClure’s SportsLine simulation, which claims a track record of correctly predicting 17 major championships, has run 10,000 iterations of the final round, projecting that leader Alex Smalley will finish outside the top five.
Smalley holds a two-shot advantage at 6 under par after shooting rounds of 67, 69, and 68. Despite this lead, the model cites his lack of experience under such pressure as a vulnerability, predicting he will be overtaken by a loaded field. The simulation suggests that Smalley’s current standing is precarious, with the model identifying a longshot at approximately 40-1 odds as a potential title contender.
Conversely, the model projects a resurgence for defending champion Scottie Scheffler. Currently positioned at 1 under par and tied for 23rd, Scheffler is expected to bounce back into the top five. The algorithm highlights Scheffler’s strong historical performance in the final round, noting his season-leading fourth-round scoring average of 67.22, which supports the projection of a strong finish despite his recent rounds of 71.
Other contenders remain within striking distance of the lead. Ludvig Åberg and Jon Rahm are tied for second at 4 under, while Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele sit at 3 under. The betting market currently favours Smalley at +480, followed by Åberg and Rahm at +550. Scheffler is listed at +1600 for an outright win and +230 for a top-five finish, reflecting the model’s confidence in his recovery.
Tee times for the final round begin at 7:40 a.m. ET, with the final grouping starting at 2:35 p.m. ET. The model’s projections are based on probabilistic data and do not guarantee outcomes, but they offer a counter-narrative to the current betting odds sourced from FanDuel. The simulation’s findings suggest that the path to victory may lie with those outside the immediate favourites.
