SportsLine model projects Red Sox upset over AL-leading Rays

The Boston Red Sox will host the American League East-leading Tampa Bay Rays at Fenway Park on Friday, July 17, 2026, for the first game of a day-night doubleheader. The matchup begins at 1:35 p.m. ET, as Boston seeks to maintain its Wild Card contention following a nine-game winning streak prior to the All-Star break.

Tampa Bay enters the contest with a 56-38 record, holding a three-game lead over the New York Yankees in the division. The Red Sox, sitting at 46-48, trail their opponents by 10 games but remain in the hunt for an AL Wild Card spot. Starting pitching duties will be handled by Griffin Jax for the Rays, who holds a 5-6 record and a 3.47 ERA, and Jake Bennett for the Red Sox, who boasts a 4-3 record and a 2.64 ERA.

SportsLine’s computer model, which simulates every Major League Baseball game 10,000 times, has released its projections for the fixture. The model entered the 2026 All-Star break with a 33-21 record on its top-rated MLB picks and has identified value in the Boston money line.

According to the latest odds, the Red Sox are listed as favourites at -112, requiring a $112 wager to win $100, while the Rays are priced at -107. SportsLine’s algorithm projects the Red Sox as the money-line favourites, suggesting the home side holds the statistical edge in this simulation.

The model also predicts the Under 8.5 total runs, citing a 60% hit rate for the Under across its 10,000 simulations. It projects a combined total of 7.9 runs for the game. Historical data from the model indicates the Under has hit in six of the eight games where Bennett has started, and in four of the six meetings between these two teams this season.

Specific player projections from the model highlight Yandy Diaz, Junio Caminero, and Jonathan Aranda for the Rays, each expected to record 1.5 or more total bases. For Boston, Willson Contreras and Wilyer Abreu are projected to achieve similar offensive output.