SportsLine expert backs Guerrero Jr and Langeliers for May 21 MLB home run props

SportsLine expert Adam Thompson has released his home run prop betting selections for the Major League Baseball schedule on Thursday, May 21. With only seven games on the slate, Thompson has focused his analysis on specific pitcher-batter matchups, backing Toronto Blue Jays player Vlad Guerrero Jr and Oakland Athletics catcher Shea Langeliers to hit home runs.

Thompson, who rejoined SportsLine in 2026 after serving as the primary betting analyst for the Gambling.com Group, brings a track record of over 70 units in MLB gains over the past two seasons. His recommendations for Thursday hinge on historical performance metrics and current pitcher vulnerabilities.

For the Blue Jays, Thompson points to Guerrero Jr’s strong record against left-handed pitching. The Blue Jays’ offence has underperformed this season, with only rookie Kazuma Okamoto and Guerrero Jr among the team’s top power hitters. Guerrero Jr has hit two of his three home runs against lefties and maintains a .935 OPS against them.

He faces New York Yankees pitcher Carlos Rodon, who holds a 0-1 record with a 5.63 ERA. Rodon has thrown eight innings through two starts without appearing particularly sharp. Guerrero Jr has a .588 batting average with a 1.608 OPS and one home run in 17 at-bats against Rodon.

Thompson also identifies a favourable spot for Langeliers against pitcher Jose Soriano. Langeliers, who has 12 home runs and is batting .322 overall, is currently in a slump, hitting .222 with zero home runs in his last seven games. Soriano has allowed four home runs in his last four games, posting a 6.14 ERA in those outings.

Langeliers has hit two home runs off Soriano in 11 at-bats. The pick is further supported by wind conditions expected to blow out to left field, which benefits Langeliers, a right-handed pull hitter.