Scheffler’s form raises questions ahead of 2026 Open Championship

Scottie Scheffler enters the 2026 Open Championship as the narrow favourite at 15/2, trailing only slightly ahead of Rory McIlroy at 17/2. This shift in betting dynamics follows Scheffler missing the cut at the Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club, which snapped a streak of 78 consecutive weekends played in PGA Tour events. Although Scheffler has maintained consistent top-10 finishes this season, his recent form has lengthened his odds to their widest in a major since the 2022 Open Championship.

McIlroy, who won the Masters in both 2024 and 2025, has seen his odds tighten, closing the gap significantly compared to previous seasons where Scheffler was the dominant favourite. Scheffler, the defending champion having won the 2025 Open at Royal Portrush, has not won a tournament since January despite recording four runner-up finishes and nine top-10s in 15 starts this year.

The defending champion’s hold on the top spot on the odds sheet has become increasingly tenuous. While Scheffler has been the strong favourite in every event he has played in for the past three seasons, his proximity to McIlroy coming into The Open is a commentary on the state of Scheffler’s game rather than McIlroy’s surge. Oddsmakers are currently offering Scheffler at 15/2 via BetMGM, a significant lengthening from his usual dominant positioning.

Scheffler’s struggles have been relative to expectation, as he has been a constant presence on the first page of the leaderboard this season. However, his performance last week at the Scottish Open rang new alarm bells. Slow starts plagued Scheffler’s early season performances, but he always found the switch when he needed it to stay in the mix. That was not the case in Scotland, and the lack of sharpness in his game he mentioned at the U.S. Open last month was apparent once again.

It has been difficult to discuss Scheffler this season because he has obviously not been at his best but has continued to grind out strong finishes. That has kept him in a tier of his own even as his level has dropped a touch, but after missing the weekend in Scotland, oddsmakers are offering him at his longest odds in a major since the 2022 Open Championship. CBS Sports experts have studied the field and come up with their Open Championship picks and predictions, along with a list of the nine golfers most likely to raise the Claret Jug come Sunday afternoon.