Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket order influencers to remove election denial posts
Internal guidelines prohibit affiliates from questioning official outcomes, but enforcement remains inconsistent as regulators scrutinise the sector.
Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket have instructed social media influencers to remove posts questioning the integrity of the Los Angeles mayoral election results. The companies confirmed they asked creators to delete content tagged as paid partnerships that cast doubt on the race outcomes, specifically targeting posts by right-wing commentators Spencer Pratt, Gunther Eagleman, and Benny Johnson.
Kalshi asked the creators to remove the posts last Friday, as first reported by Semafor. The company does not publicly disclose its contracts with paid partners, but Kalshi’s rules specifically ban affiliates from questioning the integrity or accuracy of official election results and legal rulings made in connection with elections. Spokesperson Dani Lever stated that these are internal policies to guide affiliates and partners, including standards around the promotion of Kalshi markets on elections.
Polymarket has asked two creators to remove paid-partnership tags from posts critical of the election results. A post from right-wing influencer Benny Johnson, suggesting the public had little faith in California’s elections, was tagged as paid content from June 4 until June 8, when the partnership tag was removed. Johnson has not posted any new Polymarket affiliate content since the takedown. Deputy chief legal officer Olivia Chalos said the company’s marketing guidelines explicitly prohibit affiliates from providing misleading or false information.
While some posts were removed, others promoting election-denial narratives remain online, highlighting enforcement challenges. As the newsletter Popular Information reported, other posts labeled as paid partnerships with Polymarket and Kalshi that promote election-denial narratives remain online, demonstrating how enforcing their guidelines has become a game of whack-a-mole for prediction-market firms. Polymarket is pursuing additional accounts that have violated its policies.
The incident occurs amidst broader regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets regarding gambling laws and market manipulation. Many state officials believe that these startups should be regulated like gambling platforms rather than commodities exchanges, and dozens of ongoing lawsuits are attempting to force them to abide by state gambling laws. There is bipartisan concern over how these markets can incentivise and facilitate insider trading and market manipulation.
Polymarket chief marketing officer Matthew Modabber pays content creators directly using PayPal, an unorthodox arrangement reported by Politico last week. It is unclear whether Modabber paid Johnson or right-wing commentator Kangmin Lee for these specific partnerships. Polymarket declined to comment on the form of payment.
Kalshi and Polymarket offer a wide range of politics- and elections-themed markets, and prediction-market odds are increasingly incorporated into media coverage of elections. CNN entered into a formal partnership with Kalshi late last year. However, both platforms are under intense scrutiny from lawmakers and regulators.
This latest incident raises yet another alarm: These companies have entangled themselves with influencers embracing election denialism. The odds that this is a one-off, and this army of firebrand commentators will otherwise exercise sterling judgment over what counts as appropriate paid promotional materials, look poor.
