Herbert leads Open Championship as Fitzpatrick and Clark miss cut
Australian Lucas Herbert holds a two-stroke advantage heading into the weekend, while a proprietary computer model advises against backing the leader despite his position at the top of the leaderboard.
The 2026 Open Championship at Royal Birkdale in Southport, England, concluded its third round with the cut line set at one over par, eliminating several high-profile contenders from weekend contention. Australian golfer Lucas Herbert leads the tournament at eight under par, holding a two-stroke advantage over the chasing pack. However, his position has drawn scrutiny from a SportsLine computer model developed by DFS professional Mike McClure, which advises against backing the leader. The model, which claims to have correctly predicted the winners of 17 major championships, predicts Herbert will not finish in the top 10, citing specific statistical factors regarding his performance.
The weekend field was significantly impacted by the absence of Matt Fitzpatrick, who entered the tournament as one of four leading favourites at sportsbooks. Fitzpatrick, who has secured three victories on the PGA Tour this season, finished at four over par, placing him three shots off the cut line. His campaign ended without a top-10 finish, a disappointing outcome given that this season has been described as the best of his career. Fitzpatrick had been viewed as a potential candidate to end England’s 34-year drought at The Open, but he struggled to find momentum in Southport, shooting rounds of 72 in both the first and second days.
Defending U.S. Open champion Wyndham Clark also failed to make the weekend cut. Clark began the final day at three over par but encountered significant difficulties on the front nine, recording two double bogeys and three bogeys. Although he managed five birdies and an eagle on the back nine, the early errors proved insurmountable. Clark’s record in major championships remains limited to three top-10 finishes in his career, two of which resulted in victories, and he will return to the field in 2027 without a weekend round at Royal Birkdale.
Despite the high-profile exits, the leaderboard remains competitive with a number of elite players in contention. Cameron Young, Bryson DeChambeau, Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, and Tommy Fleetwood are among those in the top 10, all within striking distance of Herbert. The depth of the field suggests a challenging weekend ahead, with multiple former major winners and current form players looking to close the gap on the Australian leader.
The performance of the cut line participants highlights the volatility of major championship golf. While Fitzpatrick and Clark had shown strong form in recent weeks, including contention at the Scottish Open, neither could sustain the required standard over 54 holes at Royal Birkdale. As the tournament moves into its final phase, the focus shifts to Herbert’s ability to maintain his lead against a stacked field, even as analytical models question the sustainability of his position.
