GolfChannel analysts predict firm conditions and low scores for 154th Open at Royal Birkdale
Contributors to GolfChannel.com have released their predictions for the upcoming championship, with Scottie Scheffler and Matt Fitzpatrick emerging as primary favourites amid forecasts of challenging course conditions.
GolfChannel.com writers have published their assessments for the 154th Open Championship, scheduled to take place at Royal Birkdale on 15 July 2026. The preview focuses on identifying the most likely contenders to lift the Claret Jug, as well as players who may struggle to adapt to the expected firm and fast conditions at the historic venue.
Ryan Lavner has selected Matt Fitzpatrick as his primary pick, citing the Englishman’s current form and major pedigree. Lavner notes that Fitzpatrick possesses an elite scrambler’s game and has shown significant improvement with his iron play. The analyst points out that Fitzpatrick’s recent near misses at the Travelers and the Scottish Open suggest he is peaking at the right time, while also highlighting that all but one of the past champions at Birkdale had already secured a major title prior to their victory there.
Rex Hoggard and Brentley Romine have both identified Scottie Scheffler as a strong contender. Hoggard argues that despite a missed cut in Scotland, the world number one remains highly effective, boasting a victory and four runner-up finishes this season. Romine adds that Scheffler has returned to being the best ball-striker on the planet, suggesting that his string of close finishes in major events may finally result in a win.
Beyond the top picks, the writers identified several other players to watch. Lavner highlighted Tyrrell Hatton, noting his improved iron play and comfort playing in the UK. Hoggard pointed to Chris Gotterup, who has won at least three times on the PGA Tour this season, while Romine expressed confidence in fellow Wake Forest products Alex Fitzpatrick and Eugenio Chacarra due to their elite ball-striking off the tee.
The forecast for the tournament suggests a demanding test for the field, with predicted winning scores ranging from 10 to 12 under par. Lavner estimated 12 under, citing the baking summer sun and fescue conditions, while Hoggard predicted 11 under based on historical data from previous Open Championships held at the course. Romine offered a more conservative estimate of 10 under, pointing to recent course modifications, including the addition of a lengthy par-3 15th hole, which have increased the difficulty.
