Brazil’s tight presidential race puts institutions and policy in focus
With voting set for 4 October, September polls show Lula narrowly ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro as crime, living costs, corruption and concerns over foreign influence shape the campaign.
Brazil’s presidential election is scheduled for 4 October, with a run-off on 25 October if no candidate wins outright. Incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is seeking a fourth, non-consecutive term, while Liberal Party candidate Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, is his main challenger.
September polling cited by Al Jazeera shows Lula with a narrow lead, though estimates vary. Quaest put Lula at 37 per cent and Bolsonaro at 33 per cent; AtlasIntel recorded 46 to 43 per cent, and Datafolha 40 to 36 per cent. These are polling snapshots, not results, and the race is described as close in a possible run-off.
Crime, the cost of living and corruption have featured prominently. In a September Quaest survey, 31 per cent of respondents named violence as their main concern, followed by corruption at 20 per cent, the economy at 19 per cent and health at 12 per cent.
The candidates have offered contrasting priorities. Bolsonaro has pledged a hard line on crime, closer collaboration with the United States and restraint on inflation and government spending. Lula has accused him of enabling US pressure on Brazil, while Bolsonaro has criticised Lula over corruption and crime.
A corruption scandal involving banker Daniel Vorcaro has drawn scrutiny to figures across the political and economic establishment. Reports cited by Al Jazeera say Bolsonaro solicited funds for a documentary about his father; Lula’s former finance minister Guido Mantega said he helped arrange a meeting with Vorcaro, Lula and the central bank chief. The reported claims and inquiries do not establish wrongdoing.
Concerns about possible US influence have also entered the campaign. Lula’s government has warned Washington against meddling, while Brazilian intelligence officials reportedly briefed European counterparts on possible outside interference. Its extent and effect on the election are not established.
